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Cina : come far diventare il Renminbi la nuova valuta di Riserva

La Cina è divenuta una dei principali attori dell’economia mondiale anche se il Renminbi (RMB) è restata una valuta sostanzialmente domestica in quanto non liberamente scambiabile. Questo situazione ora sta cambiando rapidamente: l’ambizione delle autorità cinesi è quella di farla divenire una “moneta” utilizzata dai governi come riserva valutaria. Chiaramente questo cambio avrà bisogno di un lungo periodo perchè il RMB diventi una valuta “internazionale”

I Governi hanno bisogno di nuovi “asset ” da usare come investimenti di “riserva” e l’esempio recente è l’oro e altri metalli preziosi, e questo metallo ha l’impareggiabile vantaggio che non porta con se implicitamente alcun tipo di debito; questo chiaramente non si può dire del Dollaro

La Cina ha riserve internazionali enormi ed una posizione netta positiva tra debito e riserve e gran parte di queste riserve (purtroppo per i cinesi) sono state accantonate in Dollari; ecco perchè la Cina nella sua politica di diversificazione non solo ha iniziato ad accantonare riserve in altre value (Euro; anche qui ancora purtroppo per loro) ma anche in Oro. Il problema è la disponibilità dell’Oro è limitata e non potranno più di tanto continuare ad accumulare riserve in Oro : il 5% delle riserve di Oro della Cina è pari alla produzione intera annuale del metallo prezioso

I cinesi temono che la politica di sostegno dell’economia (quantitative easing) porterà l’indebolimento della valuta americana ed essendo i cinesi grandi detentori di USD questo può provocare una minusvalenza delle loro riserve, ma del resto proprio perchè sono grandi detentori di USD non possono neanche vendere senza essere proprio loro gli artefici dell’indebolimento del dollaro e di conseguenza delle loro riserve in valuta.

Quello che sta avvenendo è che il governo cinese sta pilotando l’interazionalizzazione del RMB tramite una serie di manovre già iniziate nel 2009 (currency swap con Latino America e Asia e liberalizzazione totale su Hong Kong)

La maggiore novità (di cui ne sentirete sempre più parlare) sono i “Dim Sum” Bond. Queste obbligazioni prendono nome dal piatto tipico cinese molto popolare ad Honk Kong (per la cronaca è tipo una serie di assaggi di prodotti tipici). Questi bond emessi sulla piazza di HK sono in valuta Renmimbi e sono disponibili ad investitori stranieri solo sotto controllo delle autorità locali che ne autorizzano l’acquisto

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La liquidità degli ETF : un errore comune

Spesso si cade nell’errore che  per valutare la liquidità di un ETF basti fermarsi a guardare i volumi scambiati. Nulla di più sbagliato i volumi scambiati sul mercato secondario non sono assolutamente indicativi circa la liquidità di un ETF.

  • Anche un ETF  che presenta un basso  AuM può  essere negoziato in quantità significative senza generar impatti negativi sul bid-ask , ossia sul denaro-lettera.
  • D’altra parte, ETF caratterizzati da un elvato AuM non necessariamente sono accompagnati da forti volumi scambiati sul mercato (esempio lo SPDRE sull’indice S&P Europe 350)

Un ETF è liquido quanto il basket dei titoli sottostante

Un ETF  è tanto più liquido quanto più è semplice e poco costoso risulta il meccanismo di creation/redemption.

Il “multilisting” agevola la liquidità di un ETF. Infatti il MM nel caso sia short di un ETF su di un mercato, può effettuare un trasferimento da altri mercati/depositarie presso cui detiene una posizione lunga, senza sostenere i costi di creation.

 

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SocGen Plans Asset Sales; Shares Drop on Rating Cut Concern

 Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) — Societe Generale SA , France’s third-largest bank by assets, plans to free up 4 billion euros  ($5.4 billion) in capital through disposals by 2013 to reassure investors about its finances.

The lender’s exposure to Greek bonds is about 900 million euros and it has “no significant” holdings of Irish or Portuguese debt, the Paris-based bank said today in a statement.

Societe Generale aims to cut the cost base of its investment bank by 5 percent and have a core Tier 1 capital ratio “well above” 9 percent by 2013 with no capital increase. The company is also shedding jobs at retail networks in Russia, Romania, the Czech Republic and Egypt, it said.

“This is going in the right direction but it’s also a proof of difficulties,” said Christophe Nijdam, an analyst at AlphaValue in Paris who has a “buy” rating on the stock.

Societe Generale fell as much as 13 percent to 15.22 euros and was trading down 8.1 percent at 16.03 euros by 1:22 p.m. in Paris trading, giving it a market value of 12.4 billion euros.

The shares have lost about 60 percent of their value this year.

Disposals “will come mostly from asset management and financial services,” Chief Executive Officer Frederic Oudea told reporters today on a conference call. “August marked a real rupture. The direction of change is the same, but the rhythm must be accelerated.”

Rating Cuts?

The bank, along with French rivals BNP Paribas SA and Credit Agricole SA, may have their credit ratings cut by Moody’s Investors Service this week because of their investments in Greece, two people with knowledge of the matter said. Moody’s placed the three banks’ ratings on review in June.

“The French banks have no capital problem,” said Oudea, who is also the rotating head of the French Banking Federation. There are no talks between the government and French banks about any recapitalization, he said. Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said today that French lenders are capable of facing any Greek response to sovereign-debt difficulties and have no liquidity or solvency problems.

Greece “is not an issue” for Societe Generale as the bank reduced its net exposure to the country’s government debt, Oudea said. A hypothetical writedown of as much as 50 percent would lead to net losses of between 100 million euros and 150 million euros for the bank, the CEO said.

Trimming Businesses

Overall, Societe Generale has “low, declining and manageable sovereign exposure” of 4.3 billion euros to Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece, the bank said. The lender is planning to cut its corporate- and investment-banking balance sheet by scaling down businesses “adversely affected by the regulation or with low cross-selling potential,” the bank said.

Within its corporate- and investment-banking division, Societe Generale may trim businesses such as aircraft finance, shipping, leveraged finance and commercial real-estate financing in the U.S., Oudea said, declining to give further details.

Societe Generale said disposals of risky assets, including asset-backed securities, will continue at a “high pace.” The company has made 3.5 billion euros of disposals of risky assets in the third quarter, more than the amount in the first and second quarters combined, according to the bank’s website. The lender had 24.3 billion euros of risky assets as of Sept. 7.

Risky Assets

Societe Generale has completed its 2011 long-term funding program, it said. Cutting risky assets, using swaps between the euro and U.S. dollar in the interbank market and reducing its short-term market activities are among measures that have helped the company lower its reliance on unsecured U.S. dollar short-term funding, the bank said.

“The masses at play are modest on the scale of SocGen’s balance sheet,” Oudea said, referring to short-term funding in U.S. dollars. “We’ll avoid this becoming a significant topic.” Societe Generale will slash 2,000 jobs at its Russian retail-banking business in 2012 and also plans to reduce staff in the Czech Republic, Romania and Egypt, Oudea said, without providing more details.

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ETF mercato primario : la “creation” e la “redemption”

Nascita di un ETF: la “Creation”

Il market maker, che ha preventivamente stretto un accordo con l’emittente (c.d. “Authorized Participant Agreement”), consegna all’emittente il basket con tutti i titoli sottostanti ed in cambio riceve un corrispondente numero di quote dell’ETF (c.d. “creation units”).

Lo scambio avviene al “NAV + una commissione di creation” che viene interamente sostenuta dal market maker

La creation genera un aumento delle “oustanding shares” (ossia delle unità in circolazione dell’ETF) e dell’AUM (asset under management = patrimonio investito nell’ETF).

Come “muore” un ETF: la Redemption

Il market maker, che ha preventivamente stretto un accordo con l’emittente (c.d. “Authorized Participant Agreement”), consegna all’emittente un certo numero di quote dell’Etf (“redemption units”) ed in cambio riceve il corrispondente basket perfetto dei titoli sottostanti.

Lo scambio avviene al NAV- una commissione di redemption che viene interamente sostenuta dal market maker.

La redemption genera una diminuzione delle “outstanding shares” e dell’Aum.

Bisogna prestare attenzione sul fatto che un acquisto di ETF da parte di un investitore non genera automaticamente un aumento di Aum e/o unità in circolazione fino a che il market maker procede con una creation di ETF già detenuti nel proprio portafoglio.

Una vendita di ETF da parte di un investitore non genera automaticamente una diminuzione diAum e/o unità in circolazione fino a che il market maker che acquista gli ETF decide di tenerli nel proprio portafoglio e quindi non procede con la redemption dell’ETF.

Pertanto grazie al meccanismo della creation e della redemption l’ETF tenderà a quotare sempre intorno all’iNAV  (almeno fino a che i mercanti sottostanti sono aperti).

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Che cosa sono gli ETF

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

Gli Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) sono fondi d’investimento quotati in borsa che vengono scambiati come azioni. Gli ETF sono per la maggior parte fondi indicizzati che replicano un indice azionario od obbligazionario.  Ad esempio l’ETF  on MSCI EMU Large Cap, mira a riprodurre l’andamento dell’MSCI Large Cap Index, mentre un  ETF (IE) on iBoxx EUR Govt 1-3 punta a replicare la performance di un indice di titoli di Stato di Eurolandia a breve scadenza. Per avvicinarsi quanto più possibile all’andamento del benchmark, i gestori di ETF utilizzano diversi metodi:

ETF a replica completa − Full replication

Gli ETF a replica completa detengono tutti i titoli compresi nell’indice di riferimento, nella stessa proporzione del benchmark. Tale approccio, semplice e trasparente, garantisce scostamenti minimi tra il rendimento del fondo e quello dell’indice. Benché questa tecnica si basi su un concetto semplice, necessita di un patrimonio del fondo molto consistente e di un team di gestione del portafoglio organizzato in modo efficiente, per garantire che ogni eventuale modifica del benchmark possa essere riportata immediatamente al fondo.

ETF a replica parziale − Optimized sampling

Non sempre è possibile effettuare una replica completa dell’indice prescelto. Alcuni benchmark contengono titoli che non possono essere acquistati agevolmente da alcune tipologie di investitori oppure titoli poco liquidi o con trattamento fiscale dei rendimenti penalizzante. In questi casi, è raccomandabile una replica parziale. Si costruisce quindi un portafoglio che mira a riprodurre il più fedelmente possibile le caratteristiche dell’indice nella sua interezza, ma attraverso un numero limitato di titoli. Per creare un portafoglio di questo tipo, gli emittenti utilizzano di solito modelli matematici di ottimizzazione: è il caso ad esempio di parecchi ETF sui mercati emergenti. Anche nel caso della replica parziale il fondo investe direttamente nei titoli.

 ETF a replica sintetica − Su base swap

In particolare nel caso di indici più complessi di determinati paesi, come ad esempio di singoli mercati emergenti, è più efficiente utilizzare una replica sintetica. Grazie alla replicazione sintetica è possibile replicare con maggiore precisione ed efficienza anche indici meno liquidi, senza che l’investitore debba rinunciare a una maggiore trasparenza. Per assicurare una

replica esatta dell’indice, un ETF investe in un paniere di valori mobiliari (substitute basket) nonché in uno swap sull’indice; il rendimento del paniere di valori mobiliari viene compensato quotidianamente con il rendimento dell’indice dello swap. Per gli investitori è importante conoscere la controparte degli ETF, nonché degli swap effettuati per valutare correttamente nel suo insieme la bontà dell’ETF.  Il paniere di valori mobiliari è strutturato in modo ottimale con l’obiettivo di minimizzare i costi e massimizzare i vantaggi fiscali, sempre nel rispetto delle disposizioni di legge come ad esempio le norme UCITS III. A seguito delle maggiori esigenze di trasparenza, la composizione del paniere di valori mobiliari per alcuni emittenti viene pubblicata ogni giorno, o ogni mese sul proprio sito web.

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iShares

IShares annuncia che a partire dal 26 luglio porterà sul mercato italiano ETF Plu 19 ETF settoriali dello Stoxx 600

Di seguito l’elenco:

ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 AUTO&PARTS (DE) – DE000A0Q4R28
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 BANKS (DE) – DE000A0F5UJ7
ISHARES STOXX EU 600 BASIC RESOURCE (DE) – DE000A0F5UK5
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 CHEMICALS (DE) – DE000A0H08E0
ISHARES STOXX EU 600 CONSTR&MATER (DE) – DE000A0H08F7
ISHARES STOXX EU 600 FINANCIAL SERV (DE) – DE000A0H08G5
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 FOOD & BEV (DE) – DE000A0H08H3
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 HEALTHCARE (DE) – DE000A0Q4R36
ISHARES STOXX EU 600 INDU GOOD&SERV (DE) – DE000A0H08J9
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 INSURANCE (DE) – DE000A0H08K7
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 MEDIA (DE) – DE000A0H08L5
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 OIL & GAS (DE) – DE000A0H08M3
ISHARES STOXX EU 600 PERS&HOUSEGOOD (DE) – DE000A0H08N1
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 REALESTATE (DE) – DE000A0Q4R44
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 RETAIL (DE) – DE000A0H08P6
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 TECHNOLOGY (DE) – DE000A0H08Q4
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 TELECOM (DE) – DE000A0H08R2
ISHARES STOXX EU 600 TRAVEL&LEISURE (DE) – DE000A0H08S0
ISHARES STOXX EUROPE 600 UTILITIES (DE) – DE000A0Q4R02

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Calendario Settimanale (dal 12 al 16/09)


Calendario Settimanale
Appuntamento con i dati più importanti della settimana

US: Treasury Budget (09/13), Retail sales (09/14), PPI
(09/14), CPI (09/15), Empire State Mfg Survey (09/15),
Current Account Balance (09/15), Industrial Production
(09/15), U. Michigan Consumer Confidence (09/16)

Euroland: EMU – HICP inflation (09/15), Bini Smaghi
Speech in Rome (09/15), ECOFIN Council Meeting
(09/16); France – Consumer Prices (09/13); Portugal –
EU-IMF Completion of First Review (09/15)

UK & Other Europe: UK – CPI & RPI Inflation (09/13),
Claimant Unemployment (09/14), Retail Sales (09/15);
Sweden – Consumer Prices (09/13); Switzerland –
Monetary Policy Mtg (09/15)
CEEMEA: Czech Republic – Current Account (09/12);
Hungary – CPI (09/13), Industrial Output (09/15); Poland
–Trade Balance (09/12), CPI (09/13), Employment
(09/16); Russia – Industrial Output (09/15); Turkey –
Current Account (09/12), 2Q11 GDP (09/12)
Japan: Corporate Goods Price Index (09/12), Index of
Tertiary Industries Activity (09/12), Reuters Tankan
(09/15)
Non-Japan Asia: Australia – Trade Balance (09/12),
Westpac Consumer Confidence (09/14); Hong Kong –
Industrial Production (09/15); India – Industrial
Production (09/12), WPI Inflation (09/14); Singapore –
Retail Sales (09/15), Trade Balance (09/16)

 

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